Associate Professor, PhD I.M. Dovgalyuk¹
Associate Professor, Dr.Biol. V.V. Erlikh¹
O.Y. Berseneva¹
Postgraduate A.S. Belenkov^1
1South Ural State University (National Research University), Chelyabinsk

 

Keywords: risk, risk assessment, operations and progress scenario, inversion, progress rate, financial viability.

Backgroundю Physical education and sport institutions may be designed on a commercial or non-commercial basis in a variety of institutional/ legal model as provided by the valid legislation of the RF [1]. Modern physical education and sport institutions give a high priority to business projects that cannot but be exposed to many risks [3]. Risk assessments and analyses need to factor in every factor of influence on the actual corporate performance in context of its mission and goals with due priority to the modern sport risk assessment and analyzing technologies and methods.

Objective of the study was to develop and test benefits of a corporate operation and progress risk assessement and analyzing toolkit for the national physical education and sport institutions.

Methods and structure of the study. The corporate operation and progress risk assessements and analyses are recommended to be run in a staged manner as follows:

1. Based on the available operational and progress data of the physical education and sport institution (business history; service scope variations; flow of human resource; physical education and sport service statistics including: facilities availability rate, service range, service capacity and location; new health physical education and sport technologies including: modern fitness services, applied computer technologies, equipment and accessories; technological progress data etc.), the corporate lifecycle will be analyzed. Knowing the life cycle, the present situation in its context and the transitional process milestones and challenges, a special project will be designed to mitigate the negative and empower the positive aspects of the corporate operations.

2. The risk assessment study found that the institutional operation risks may be measured by the relevant financial/ economic progress rates and their correlation and variation data. A due priority shall be given to the sustainable development opportunities of the institution viewed as the key prerequisite for success of its mission with the growth risks being minimized.

3. The institutional financial/ economic performance and progress rates and their variation profiles will be applied to assess the operations, resource and progress of the institution.

4. Having ranked the corporate performance rates and the growth statistics, the analyst will design an ideal reference operation system for benchmarking analyses versus the actual progress statistics. The closer is the actual corporate performance to the reference sample (forecast) in the long run, the better are the operations.

Given hereunder for example is the calculation of the return on investment (ROI) growth rate versus the forecast for Business Activity module of an active cycle in physical education and sport institution’s operations.

Forecast growth rate	{C} {C}	{C} {C}	{C} {C}	{C} {C}
Forecast rank	1	2	3	4

Note: Т – growth rate; врп – income from sales; вноа – average non-circulating assets for the period; исс – own financial resources; з – total costs

 

The above rates were chosen for the reason that a high-quality physical education and sport service requires significant investments in the sport facilities, equipment, technologies, progress test systems to support the trainings; compliance system to meet the technical standards etc.; and, hence, the ROI (return on investments) related rates are critical for the institutional progress and service quality assessment purposes.

5. Now we will analyze the correlation of the actual operational rates and progress chains with the forecasts, with the inversions being indicative of the risks i.e. potential imbalances in the corporate operations and progress. Risks may be assessed as follows

with I – number of inversions for the period under analysis; С – number of ways to chose k elements from an array of n elements.

The corporate operation and progress may be rated by the following formula:

{C}

{C}

,

with U – corporate operation and progress rate variable from 0 to 1; and R – risk for the corporate operation and progress.

When the actual operation and progress rate is fairly close to the forecast, it may be interpreted as a success of the corporate management policies (U = 1); and vice versa, a total failure of the policies is rated by U = 0.

The corporate operation and progress risk assessement and analyzing toolkit was tested at the South Ural State University Sport Center Management Office (hereinafter referred to as the SCMO) in the period of 2015-17.

Study findings and discussion. The corporate operations and progress analysis using 20 performance rates showed the SCMO being in an active stage of its lifecycle.

	Operation/ progress rates	Period for analysis
		2015	2016	2017
1	Sport facilities	2	3	3
2	Newly commissioned sport facilities	1	-	-
3	Training systems/ equipment renewal rate	0,183	0,246	0,323
4	Service capacity: people served	398 720	432 700	466 336
5	Key items of the assets	31	34	37
6	New sport sections	8	3	4
7	Groups in the sport sections	24	9	12
8	Human resource, headcount	270	272	274
9	Human resource advancement costs, RUR’000	120	120	120
10	Season ticket costs, RUR’000	2,4	2,6	2,9
11	Mass sport events	25	30	31
12	Most popular sport service	swimming	swimming	swimming
13	Profit, RUR’000	6386	13448	9497,9
14	Capital investments, RUR’000	2735	5715	2000
15	Competitiveness rate, points	7,9	8,3	8,8

Note: 16-20 – financial performance rates

 

This stage in the corporate lifecycle implies a fair maturity of the subject physical education and sport institution, its good market standing and a high competitiveness. We made and analyzed the Profitability; Business Activity; Financial Viability; and Liquidity and Solvency forecasts for the subject physical education and sport institution. The corporate operation rate was estimated at 0.89 – that is indicative of the corporate management office being highly successful in its financial and economic policies.

Conclusion. The corporate operation and progress risk assessement and analyzing toolkit provides the means to analyze both the sector-specific and individual operational specifics of physical education and sport institutions, with the progress forecasts/ scenarios developed with due consideration for the stages in the corporate lifecycle and integrated risk rates – to secure the analytical approach being individualized for every physical education and sport institution.

References

1. Federalny zakon ot 04.12.2007 # 329–FZ 'O fizicheskoy kulture i sporte v Rossiyskoy Federatsii' [Federal law of 12/04/2007 # 329 – FL 'On physical education and sports in the Russian Federation'].

2. Smagin V.N., Balahonova I.M. Otsenka riska snizheniya finansovoy ustoychivosti [Assessment of financial stability reduction risk]. Materialy mezhdunarodnoy konferentsii 'Aktualnye problemy reformirovaniya ekonomiki i zakonodatelstva Rossii i stran SNG' [Proc. international conference 'Actual problems of reforms in economy and legislation of Russia and CIS countries']. Chelyabinsk: SUSU publ., 2004, pp. 2014-2018.

3. Rodrнguez-Caсamero S., Gallardo L., Felipe J.L., Garcнa-Unanue J. Economic trend analysis of the fitness sector. Journal of Physical Education and Sport, 2018, no. 18 (1). pр. 79-88.

 

Corresponding author: balakhonovaim@susu.ru

 

Abstract

The study overviews and analyzes benefits of a new corporate operations and progress risk assessment method in application to a physical education and sport institution. The method is designed to rate and analyze classified operational situations and correlations with their potential impacts on the corporate operation forecasts. The study analyzes the key provisions for successful operations of a physical education and sport institution versus the key operational goals, with a special emphasis on the corporate progress rating factors for every corporate lifecycle. The new corporate operations and progress risk assessment method was tested in practice on the operational data of the SUSU Sport Center Management Office. The corporate operations and progress risk assessment method takes into account the sector-specific and individual corporate operation rating factors to design the best-case operational scenario/ forecast customizable to the relevant corporate lifecycle stage with the integrated risk values to secure the method being duly individualized for every physical education and sport institution.