PhD S.V. Zabegalina¹
Dr. Hab. N.I. Kalakov^2
1Ulyanovsk State Pedagogical University, Ulyanovsk
²Peter the Great Military Academy of the Strategic Missile Troops, Moscow

Keywords: prognostic thinking, forecasts, prognostic process goals, adaptation, forecasting ability, resilience, process subject.

Background. Prognostic thinking development tasks are geared to facilitate the thinking process with the forecasting abilities that are particularly critical for success of the professional physical education and sport specialist training system reform [5]. The prognostic thinking development tasks are specific in the sense that they encourage the situation modeling skills to find the best solutions to the upcoming problems. The sample prognostic situations offered by L.A. Regush [6] for future education specialists are quite popular today albeit the prime idea was provided by M. Wertheimer [1]. The modern academic physical education process is intended to secure good physiological, mental and social adaptability for young professionals [3]. In addition, a specialist shall be skillful and competent in the mental balancing and self-control domains [4], with the relevant competences also facilitated by the prognostic thinking development model.

Objective of the study was to improve the thinking process efficiency by a prognostic thinking development method tested on the students majoring in Physical Education.

Methods and structure of the study. The prognostic thinking development tasks designed for the study purposes are intended to support the psychological support toolkit for the personality adaptation process. We developed the toolkit for the academic educational process actors based on the actual materials to secure the high value and practical importance of the study, and tested the toolkit a year ago. The proposed tasks were designed for emergency situations, with the second specialty including a special integrated curriculum for the theoretical competency in such situations. Subject to the study was a sample of the fifth-year students (n=45) and second-year students (n=35) majoring in Physical Education and Life Safety at Ulyanovsk State Pedagogical University. As required by the instruction for the tasks, the responses were rated on a 5-point scale as follows: (1) Forecast is made; (2) A few versions of the forecast are offered; (3) Most probable scenario is grounded; (4) The solution specifies the action plan and grounds for it; (5) The solution describes the situation following the completed action plan and/or forecast. The tasks were to be solved within a certain timeframe.

In addition to the statistical methods application for the individual prognostic competence rating purposes, a non-statistical factor analysis is also applicable. Tasks in this case shall amount to at least 12, with the total number of tasks coming to 14, and the students required to solve at least 12 of them.

Based on the situation forecast approach offered by G.A. Zharkova [2], the tasks were designed so as to facilitate the solution ability rating as the key factor demonstrating the individual prognostic knowledge and skill level. The process may be described by a single-factor model based on the assumption that for every i, j

whereas  means the prognostic ability rate of the i-subject (the concealed factor needs to be quantified);  means the objective parameter of the j-task, the same for every subject and indicative of the task adequacy for the subject’s prognostic ability being fairly rated.

Furthermore, , with the  vector components proportional to the subject’s prognostic ability rate; and the  vector components indicative of the task adequacy for the subject’s prognostic ability being fairly rated. When the  values need to be converted to points on a 5-point scale, for example, the maximal component of the vector is rated by 5 points with all the others valued proportionally.

For the tasks particularly sensitive to individual intuition, creativity and knowledge mobilizing ability in non-standard situations, >0; and <0 for the tasks that require only standard knowledge and skills to be solved, with the forecasts made by a deductive method. A statistical data analysis shall be applied for the intergroup rating and comparisons to rank the prognostic thinking abilities. The key objective of the study was to rate the intergroup differences rather than the individual prognostic abilities only. With this purpose, the second-year students’ success and time rates were analyzed versus those of the fifth-year students, plus the gender-specific differences were found.

The distribution normality exercise using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test showed that the distribution on some scales differs from the norm and, hence, the data arrays may be compared using non-parametric parameters like the Mann-Whitney one.

Study results and discussion. When analyzing the solutions to the prognostic tasks, we obtained the individual success rates and task solving time, with the firth-year students found more successful in the solutions. The differences of the data arrays were statistically significant by the Mann-Whitney criterion for the following tasks: №6 (with p≤0.05); №8 (with p≤0.05); №11 (with p≤0.05); №13 (with p≤0.01), and №14 (with p≤0.01). The group-specific (second- versus fifth-year group) task solution times were significantly different for tasks №№1-3, 5, 7 and 10 (with p≤0.01); and №№4, 8, 9, 11 (with p≤0.05), i.e. 10 out of 14. In every case of the statistically significant time differences, the fifth-year students were faster in task solving.

The second goal of the study was to find the gender-specific differences in the task solving success and time rates. The differences of the gender-specific data arrays were statistically significant by the Mann-Whitney criterion for the following tasks: №2 (with p≤0.05); №5 (with p≤0.01) and №12 (with p≤0.01), with the male group showing high success rates. As for the task solution times, the significant gender-specific difference was found only for task №8, with the female students needing less time to solve a task in class.

Conclusion. The study data and analysis showed the prognostic thinking and forecast ability being higher in the senior students. Gender differences were found in the prognostic task solving success rates, with the male group showing higher success rates. The higher is the prognostic thinking ability, the higher is the competence level and adaptability to the academic education and professional service environments. The prognostic thinking ability testing and developing tasks were proved beneficial for the students majoring in Physical Education.

References

1. Wertheimer M. Produktivnoe myshlenie [Productive Thinking]. Moscow: Progress publ., 1987, 336 p.
2. Zharkova G.A. Metodologicheskie osnovy situatsionno-prognosticheskogo podkhoda k razvitiyu informatsionnoy kultury lichnosti v sisteme nepreryvnogo obrazovaniya [Methodological basics of situational-prognostic approach to development of personal information culture in continuous educational system]. Ulyanovsk: UlSU publ., 2014, 146 p.
3. Kalakov N.I., Skotnikova A.V., Zabegalina S.V. Osobennosti adaptatsii lichnosti i fizicheskoy podgotovki v usloviyakh Arktiki [Features of personality adaptation and physical training in the Arctic]. Sportivny psikholog, 2012, no. 3 (27), pp. 77-79.
4. Kandybovich S.L., Sekach M.F. Psikhicheskaya ustoychivost cheloveka [Human mental stability]. Chelovecheskiy kapital, 2013, no. 9 (57), pp. 159-166.
5. Lubysheva L.I., Magin V.A. Kontseptsiya modernizatsii protsessa professionalnoy podgotovki spetsialistov po fizicheskoy kulture i sportu [The concept of physical education and sports specialist vocational training process modernization]. Teoriya i praktika fiz. kultury, 2003, no. 12, P. 12.
6. Regush L.A. Psikhologiya prognozirovaniya: uspekhi v poznanii buduschego [Psychology of Prediction: Progress in the Knowledge of Future]. St. Petersburg: Rech publ., 2003, 352 p.

Corresponding author: svetlanviktorovn@mail.ru

Abstract

Prognostic thinking development tasks are geared to facilitate the thinking process with the forecasting abilities that are particularly critical for success of the professional physical education and sport specialist training system reform [5]. The prognostic thinking development tasks are specific in the sense that they encourage the situation modeling skills to find the best solutions to the upcoming problems.

Objective of the study was to improve the thinking process efficiency by a prognostic thinking development method tested on the students majoring in Physical Education. The individual ability to predict by solving prognostic tasks is measured using non-statistical factor analysis, and criterion of group differences, and using Mann-Whitney U test in case of groups. The study data and analysis showed the prognostic thinking and forecast ability being higher in the senior students. Gender differences were found in the prognostic task solving success rates, with the male group showing higher success rates. The higher is the prognostic thinking ability, the higher is the competence level and adaptability to the academic education and professional service environments. The prognostic thinking ability testing and developing tasks were proved beneficial for the students majoring in Physical Education.