M.R. Miftakhov¹
PhD, Professor M.M. Bariev^{2, 3}
Dr.Sc.Econ., Professor T.V. Kramin^4
1Ministry of youth, sports and tourism of the Republic of Tatarstan, Kazan
²State Duma of the Russian Federation of the Seventh Convocation, Moscow
³Kazan National Research Technical University n.a. A.N .Tupolev, Kazan
⁴Kazan Innovative University n.a. V.G. Timiryasov (IEML), Kazan

 

Keywords: sports, economics, development, investment, sports object, efficiency, sports activity, Kazan, Universiade heritage, regression model, human capital.

Introduction. Recently, the successfulness of a region of the Russian Federation has been determined not only by performance of the regional authorities, but the effective local activities of municipalities. In search for the measures for strategic planning of social and economic development at the level of municipal districts (city districts) of the Republic of Tatarstan, the President and The Government of the Republic decided to elaborate the Strategy of social and economic development of the Republic of Tatarstan until 2030[1] (hereinafter the 2030 Strategy). According to the main idea of the 2030 Strategy, the initiative must come from the municipalities. This document is meant to be the most important factor in the innovation, investment and cluster policy of the region.

One of the three key lines of the Strategy is Human Capital.

The capital of the Republic of Tatarstan is the city of Kazan. Being the growth driver for the development of all municipalities, the city plays an important role in the implementation of the 2030 Strategy, including the issues of arranging comfortable environment for the Human Capital.

This work has researched one of the characteristics of the Human Capital – the value of healthy lifestyle and efficient public health care.

The hypothesis of the research is worded as follows: “People’s sport activity in a municipality makes a positive impact on the working capacity of the gainfully occupied population and, consequently, is important for the economic growth of the municipality”. The priority is to receive the quantitative characteristics of such an impact. The main purpose is to find out the correlation between sport activity and social and economic situation of the region in the Republic as a whole, and in municipalities in particular. The objects of the research are the regions and city districts of the Republic of Tatarstan, their sport activity and infrastructure.

Nowadays the city of Kazan is one of the leaders in the field of sports and in providing modern and reasonable conditions for doing sports and physical training. The number of sport facilities is approximately 2 000, which can be attended by 250 000 people at a time. The city is also the leader in the number of indoor ice rinks and swimming pools. In 2015, the total number of people engaged in sports increased by 23%, compared with 2009, and made up 39,75% of the total population (Figure 1).

 

Figure 1. The population base and coverage with organized forms of physical training and sports in Kazan (thousands of people or % from overall population).

(Source: reports by the Ministry of Youth and Sport of the Republic of Tatarstan.)

In 2013 the XXVII Summer Universiade was held in Kazan, in 2015 - the 16th FINA World Championships. By the virtue of these events, the infrastructure of the city has been noticeably improved: new transport junctions were built, the airport and the railway station were renovated, and the work of public services was improved.

For example, the cumulative investment for the preparation for the Universiade made up 228 billion rubbles, 67 billion of which were from the federal budget. Virtually the same amounts were from the budget of the Republic of Tatarstan (81 billion rubbles) and private investors (80 billion rubbles). The operating budget expenses on the preparation and staging of the Universiade in 2009-2013 made up approximately 11 billion rubbles. The remaining funds were spent on the construction of the facilities, the city infrastructure development, and the renewal of the road network. [1]

Apart from 30 new sport venues, the Universiade has become one of the major investment projects, because the preparation for the event brought to Kazan over 130 billion rubbles of direct investments.

Ultimately, the Universiade has promoted the growth of financial, consumer, infrastructure and institutional potential of the Republic. The impact assessment of the major sporting events, particularly the preparation and staging of the Universiade 2013, on enhancing the region’s investment attractiveness and also on the issues of the management of investment attractiveness during their preparation and staging was made in the works by Kramin T.V and Leonov V.A. [3,4, 5]

Due to the competent appliance of the experience of major international sport projects, Kazan has become the leader in engaging the population into sports and physical training. At the same time, currently some questions appear:

1. What is the social value of sport policy which is being implemented in Kazan?

2. How economically reasonable is it to invest in sports? What economic effect does the construction of sport venues have?

It is obvious that within the period of preparation for the World Universiade Kazan became one of Russia’s main sport centres, where all the conditions for the population’s, and especially young generation’s, healthy lifestyle are arranged.

The whole range of measures forms the Heritage of the Universiade which is the instrument of healthy lifestyle promotion.

It is evident from the following:                                          

- more and more people being engaged into sports and physical training;

- internally and morally healthy personality being formed;

- the Republic of Tatarstan and Kazan are becoming increasingly recognizable, interesting and attractive all over the world as a tourist, cultural, sports centre and as an economically developed region;

- the environmental situation being improved due to the infrastructure developed for the Universiade.

More factors of positive influence of the Universiade can be mentioned. Altogether, the Universiade Heritage has an enormous potential for improvement of the living standards and health of the population.

Currently, due to “the effect of the Universiade-2013 ”, in the development of mass sports in Kazan, the number of ice rinks, gymas, and swimming pools are daily visited by more than 30 thousand people. Among them: 15% - senior citizens, 12% - people with health issues and disabilities, and over 45% - students of general secondary schools and sport schools.

The most visited sport venues are swimming pools (32% of the total number), ice rinks, sports halls and football pitches (each approximately 20%).

New forms of healthy lifestyle popularization are being actively used in the sport venues for the purposes of cultural events initiation and development. Spartakiads among pupils and students, public and municipal servants, senior citizens and disabled people are held.

The venues are rented to carry out corporative sport events. During the period of 2014-2016, the VII Spartakiad of the Federal Tax Service workers (approximately 300 participants), the Spartakiad of the Public Prosecution Service of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus (approximately 380 participants), the X Summer All-Russian Gazprom[2] Games (approximately 2000 participants), and Sberbank[3] Games were held among others.

As for development of children and youth sports, sport schools are being moved to new venues.  As of the beginning of 2016, state and municipal youth sport centres have 120 sports complexes in their inventory, which include 26 ice arenas and 38 swimming pools. Approximately 25 thousand young people engaged in 50 sports are placed in new modern facilities in Kazan.

In the development of university sports, perfect conditions are provided for approximately 100 thousand students for doing sports within walking distance of the places of study. Students’ Football League, Students’ Hockey League, Volleyball League, and the Association of Student Basketball are operating successfully.

Thus, the development of transport infrastructure, roads and junctions, catering facilities, close proximity of sport venues to universities and places of living save time for sport trainings, and, consequently, improve the living standards and health of the population [7, 8].

Let us examine the economic component of the research.

To conduct the research, the tools for correlative regression analysis were used.

The working hypothesis is the presence of the direct relation between the number of people systematically engaged in sports per 1000 people, and sickness rate per 1000 people in the municipalities of the Republic of Tatarstan. The data is represented in the reports of the Territorial Body of the Federal State Statistics Service in the Republic of Tatarstan, the Ministry of Youth and Sports of the Republic of Tatarstan, and the Ministry of Public Health of the Republic of Tatarstan (Table 1, 2).

Table 1. Number of people doing sports per 1000 of population in the Republic of Tatarstan in 2008–2015 (Source: reports of the Ministry of Youth and Sports of the Republic of Tatarstan)

Index	Years
	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
number of people doing sports per 1000 of population in Kazan	155	170,5	185	250,3	280	329,9	385,1	396,5
number of people doing sports per 1000 of population in Naberezhnye Chelny	18,8	20,29	23,9	25,5	27,86	30,05	36,33	38,48
Other 43 municipalities of the Republic of Tatarstan	…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…
Total in the Republic of Tatarstan	190,4	205,5	231,3	265,2	289,5	322,5	374,3	398,3

Table 2. Primary disease incidence in the entire population of the Republic of Tatarstan for all categories of diseases per 1000 of population of the relevant age. (Source: reports of the Ministry of Public Health of the Republic of Tatarstan)

Place	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Kazan	878,4	894,5	922,8	915,8	927,1	961,0	965,4	905,2
Naberezhnye Chelny	957,5	1055,4	1003,5	1009,1	1012,9	963,9	998,0	948,0
Other 43 municipalities of the Republic of Tatarstan	…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…
Total in the Republic of Tatarstan	820,3	866,6	846,8	849,8	845,2	831,6	841,1	805,6

It is worth mentioning that in 2012-2013 the research team including professor of Kazan Innovative University named after V.G. Timiryasov Kramin T.V. and Minister of Youth and Sports of the Republic of Tatarstan V.A. Leonov proved the connection between physical activity and disease rate of the population of the Republic of Tatarstan by time series.(Table 3) [3,4, 6].

Table 3. Regression model of the assessment of the impact of sport activity on the sickness rate of the working population in the Republic of Tatarstan (Kramin-Leonov Model 2006-2012)

Observations included: 7 Sampling of 2006–2012		Dependent variable ILLNESS
Variable	Coefficient	Standard error	t-statistics	Probability of Н0 – hypothesis
C	860,6757	45,97463	18,72067	0,0000
SPORT(-2)	-1,188807	0,274130	-4,336651	0,0123
ILLNESS(-1)	0,069702	0,032263	2,160422	0,0968
R2	0,826773	F-statistics		9.545522
Durbin-Watson statistic	1,936681	Probability of zero-hypothesis by F-statistics		0,030008

The work shows the dependence of the sickness rate of the population of the Republic of Tatarstan on the level of sports activity. The analyzed indices were the number of people doing sports per 1000 of population in the Republic of Tatarstan (let us denote it as SPORT) and the number of sick days for the working population of the Republic of Tatarstan (per 100 of working people, denoted as ILLNESS), based on the data reported by the Territorial body of the Federal State Statistics Service in the Republic of Tatarstan.

The regression model is well-specified: the coefficients at the independent variables are statistically significant; the value of Durbin-Watson model statistic is close to two (which is relevant for the regression models made by time series); index R² exceeds 80%, which underlines the explanation fact of more than 80% fluctuation of the dependent variable as a result of the model building; the value of F-statistics is high enough, and the probability of its zero hypothesis confirmation makes up less than five percent, which characterizes the overall high specification of the regression model.

Besides, the result of the model complies with common sense and the results of other research: the model proves that the growth of sport activity reduces the number of sick days. The negative coefficient before the independent variable SPORT(-2) proves this fact. There are lagged variables in the model represented in Table 3.

The time series of the ILLNESS variable contains serial correlation. To exclude it from the model as an explanatory variable, the autoregressive variable ILLNESS(-1) shall be introduced. In addition, the regression analysis allowed to determine the time delay (lag) of the influence of sport activity on the sickness rate for as long as two time periods (two years); as a result, the independent variable SPORT is introduced in the model with a -2 lag.

The research we conducted at the level of municipalities generally confirms and verifies the aforementioned  research. In addition, this work indicates a direct linear connection between the number of those systematically doing sports and the sickness rate at the level of municipalities in the Republic of Tatarstan. The analysis of the determination coefficient, zero hypothesis by t-statistics for the coefficient before the independent variable and the compliance of the equation with the F-test demonstrates the high level of the models’ specification (Table 4) [6].

The 2016 research has significant statistical meaning of the modeling result since the sampling was made in terms of all municipalities of the Republic of Tatarstan within the period from 2009 to 2015. Thereby the values and the model specification improved as a result of econometric modeling.

Table 4. Regression model of the assessment of the impact of sport activity on the sickness rate of the working population in the Republic of Tatarstan (2016 research)

Observations included: 315 Sampling of 2009–2015:		Dependent variable ILLNESS
Variable	Coefficient	Standard error	t-statistics	Probability of Н0 – hypothesis
C	442,2743	37,27087	11,86649	0,0000
SPORT(-2)	-2,240632	0,623163	-3,595577	0,0004
ILLNESS(-1)	0,434690	0,050305	8,641026	0,0000
R2	0,890912	F-statistics		47.58095
Durbin-Watson statistic	1,863268	Probability of zero-hypothesis by F-statistics		0,000000

In my research made in 2016, a model similar to that by Leonov V.A. and Kramin T.V. was built (see Table 4). Unlike the previous model the municipalities of the Republic of Tatarstan were studied, and panel data was used instead of spatial (cross-section) data. As a result of building a similar model, all its parameters were improved: the value of all the model’s regressors increased (more that 99% by t-statistics), R² increased (from 82% to 89%), the value of F-statistics increased from 9,5 to 47,6. The number of observations increased to 315, which had an additional positive effect for the model’s specification level rise.

In addition, with the correlation between the studied indices retained, the dependence of the dependent variable on the SPORT(-2) value doubled as a result of adjustment and extension of the model based on the municipal panel data of the Republic of Tatarstan for the period of 2009-2015, which proves the growing positive influence of sport activity on the people’s sickness rate (reduction thereof). In particular, it is worth mentioning that the previous sampling was made for the period of 2006-2012.

As a result of the model formation, it was proved that the growth of people’s sport activity, including physical training, decreases the overall time of temporary incapacity to labour among gainfully occupied population due to sickness both of the Republic of Tatarstan in general and in a municipality taken individually. The aforementioned influence occurs with a two-year lag, i.e. the increase in people’s sport activity will result in the sickness rate decrease 2 years later. The degree of this influence shall be determined in terms of quantity according to the parameters of the model built.

The quantitative interrelation of sport activity and labour efficiency of the working population is determined through regression modeling:

ILLNESS = 442.27 - 2.24*SPORT(-2) + 0.43*ILLNESS(-1) + ε,

where ε– regression equation error.

According to this equation, to forecast the level of temporary incapacity for work of the working population due to sickness for the next year one should be aware of the sickness rate for the current year and sport activity for the last year.

According to the Strategy of social and economic development of the Republic of Tatarstan, by 2020 it is planned to reach 45% of people doing sports on a regular basis. By reference to the equation, let us determine the influence of people’s sport activity per the share of gross regional product for the forecast period.

Sport activity is to increase to 450 people per 1000 of population of the Republic of Tatarstan by 2020. Sickness rate is to drop down to 1 330 560 man-days per year by 2022. If multiplied by the average salary in Kazan of 29 000 rub., the economic effect, i.e. additional possibility to perform work, is to make up 1 837 mln. rub. per month or 22 bln. rub. per year. With the republican GRP value of 1,8 trn. rub. (as of the beginning of 2016) the effect is to make up 1,2% of its value.

Besides, it is worth mentioning that the 1% increase in the number of those doing sports, other conditions being equal, decreases temporary incapacity for work of the working population of the Republic of Tatarstan by two and a half days per year, as per every 100 of the employed. It is necessary to note that statistics shows positive dynamics of this index decreasing in Kazan over the last 2 years (Table 2).

For instance, according to the State Public Institution “Kazan Employment Center”, the gainfully occupied population of the city as of the beginning of 2016 makes up 672 000 people. Thus, the aforementioned (1%) increase in people’s sport activity in Kazan will lead to a decrease in temporary incapacity for work of the working population due to sickness by 16 800 man-days in 2018. Therefore, the work potential of Kazan will increase without any engagement of additional work force; the labour efficiency of the working population will grow.

Thus, based on this research and big sampling of data, two important conclusions were drawn:

1. Sport activity at the level of municipalities has a profound influence on the sickness rate of the population, which means that even in the cities and districts it is necessary to work for the purposes of achieving significant economic effect.

2. The work strictly mathematically proves that the funds invested by the government in the creation of comfortable conditions for doing sports are indirectly repayable through the decrease in sickness rate and, as a consequence, increase in the economic activity of the population.

Interpreting the results, it can be noted that the investments made during the preparation for the Universiade have a significant economic effect represented by the increased working capacity of the population. Improvement of comfortable living conditions, high quality of public services, engagement of the population in sports and physical training, decrease in the sickness rate – these are the factors which directly influence the development of the human capital.

Currently, within the framework of the Republic’s 2030 Strategy, the municipal programs of social and economic development are being elaborated and implemented. Many indicators of the increase in people’s sport activity are taken into account in these documents for a long-run period. For instance, within the framework of the federal program “The development of sport and physical education in the Republic of Tatarstan for the period of 2016-2020”, the priority for the bodies of the executive power in the sphere of sport and physical education is the construction of low-budget sport facilities (under 100 mln. rub.) and domiciliary facilities (multipurpose sports grounds, skating rinks, ski complexes). Such type of sport facilities will help maximize the effect of engaging people in sports at a low cost. 

In perspective, using the technique of correlative regression analysis it is planned to continue the studies on the influence of sport activity on such aspects as: decrease of crime and delinquency, number of people engaged in economics and business, etc. in terms of city districts and regions of Tatarstan, as well as in Russia as a whole.

References

1. Bariev M.M. Nasledie universiad i Olimpiyskikh igr – vozmozhnost dlya investitsiy i razvitiya [Heritage of Universiade and Olympic Games - Investment and Development Opportunities]. Teoriya i praktika fiz. kultury, 2014, no. 1, pp. 7-9.
2. Kramin T.V., Kramin M.V., Petrova E.A., Vorontsova L.V. Uchet vliyaniya institutsionalnoy sredy institutsionalnykh preobrazovaniy na protsess formirovaniya sovremennoy modeli korporativnogo upravleniya v Rossii [Consideration of the impact of institutional environment of institutional transformations on the process of formation of advanced model of corporate management in Russia]. Aktualnye problemy ekonomiki i prava [Topical issues of economics and law], 2010, no. 3, pp. 43–52.
3. Kramin T.V., Leonov V.A. Opredelenie prioritetov upravleniya investitsionnoy privlekatelnostyu regiona i ih uchet v ramkakh realizatsii krupnykh sportivnykh meropriyatiy [Identification of the priorities of regional investment attractiveness management and their consideration within the framework of hosting major sporting events]. Aktualnye problemy ekonomiki i prava [Topical issues of economics and law], 2012, no. 1, pp. 39-45.
4. Leonov V.A. Povyshenie investitsionnoy privlekatelnosti regiona v rezultate podgotovki i provedeniya krupnykh sportivnykh meropriyatiy [Promotion of regional investment attractiveness as a result of preparation and hosting major sporting events]. Aktualnye problemy ekonomiki i prava [Topical issues of economics and law], 2012, no. 1 (21), pp. 11–20.
5. Leonov V.A. Formirovanie mekhanizma realizatsii regionalnykh investitsionnykh proektov (na primere podgotovki krupnykh sportivnykh meropriyatiy). Avtoref. dis. kand. ekonom. nauk [Formation of regional investment projects implementation mechanism (case study of preparation for major sporting events). PhD diss. abstract]. Ulyanov ChSU publ., Cheboksary, 2012, 24 p.
6. Miftakhov M.R. Sovremennye podkhody k effektivnomu ispolzovaniyu novykh sportivnykh sooruzheniy v Respublike Tatarstan [Modern Approaches to Effective Use of New Sports Facilities in the Republic of Tatarstan].Teoriya i praktika fiz. kultury, 2014, no. 1, pp. 25-27.
7. Miftakhov M.R. Analiz effektivnosti ispolzovaniya sportivnykh sooruzheniy v Respublike Tatarstan [Analysis of operational efficiency of sports facilities in the Republic of Tatarstan]. Nauka i sport: sovremennye tendentsii, 2016, no. 2 (vol. 11), p. 57.
8. Ofitsialny portal Ministerstva po delam molodezhi i sportu Respubliki Tatarstan [Official portal of the Ministry of Youth and Sports of the Republic of Tatarstan]. Available at: http://www.mdms.tatar.ru
9. Ofitsialny portal Ministerstva zdravookhraneniya Respubliki Tatarstan [Official portal of the Ministry of Public Health of the Republic of Tatarstan]. Available at: http://minzdrav.tatarstan.ru/
10. Ofitsialny portal territorialnogo organa Federalnoy sluzhby gosudarstvennoy statistiki po Respublike Tatarstan [Official portal of the territorial body of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Republic of Tatarstan]. Available at: http://tatstat.gks.ru/.

Corresponding author: Marsel.Miftahov@tatar.ru, mbariev@yandex.ru, kramint@mail.ru

Abstract

For the authorities of all levels the issue of finding new spheres, forms and reserves to improve their work effectiveness definitely remains topical.

For instance, one of the major challenges in the field of physical training and sports for the bodies of executive power is to increase people’s sport activity. Based on a strictly scientific approach, this research demonstrates that sport activity contributes to the economic development of the Republic. Besides, the comparative study of the municipalities of the Republic of Tatarstan showed that the works on raising people’s sport activity at the local municipal level is even more significant in the current context.

The growth of sport activity in the Republic of Tatarstan is driven by Kazan. Our research shows that the work on increase of the sport activity in Kazan has the most significant social and economic effect among other municipalities.

The preceding research by T.V. Kramin and V.A. Leonov proved the relation between the level of people’s physical activity and sickness rate of the whole Republic of Tatarstan. This work defines the dependence of sickness rate on the level of sport activity of the population at the municipal level. It is ought to be noted that this model is general and one of the research lines is to find out if this hypothesis is confirmed at the municipal level. In other words, we are investigating the question of how the arrangement of proper conditions in the physical training and sports activity sphere influences the social and economic policy in towns and regions of the Republic.