A.N. Korol'kov, associate professor, Ph.D.
Russian state university of physical culture, sport, youth and tourism (SCOLIPC), Moscow
D.S. Zherebko, Head of Regional Development    
Russian golf association, Moscow

Key words: golf, massive scale, golf perspectives, factor analysis.

While studying the factors of top achievements in sport, many scientists distinguished the range of sports movement and the social background of its development in society [8], the level of people’s welfare and available sports facilities among the factors that characterize the social environment [9]. Some socioeconomic factors are considered without quantification [3]. The works [1,2] contain the descriptions of different ratios of the factors of the massive scale of sport and elite sport, along with defined social factors providing for the latter like teachware, logistics, economic and demographic conditions. Objective and subjective factors of the massive scale of fitness and sports occupations are presented in the work [7].

In the meantime, the findings don’t contribute to determining the degree of impact of different factors on the efficiency of performance at the biggest competitions. The social factors of high sports achievements are often conceptually put on the last place by scientists next to individual and scientific and technical factors [4, 5].

It is assumed relevant to determine the priorities and the degree of impact of various factors, such as social, demographic, historical and some other, on achievement of top results in sport, to set the interrelations between the massive scale and sports mastery. The relevance of such an analysis as applied to golf is also stipulated by the fact that golf is reincluded in the program of Olympic Games, and in Russia this sport is just coming in.

The purpose of the study was to allocate the significant factors and their priorities that determine the place of golfers in the top-250 world ranking and define the influence of the massive scale of golf in the country on the position of the national players in top-250.

Solution of these tasks related to golf ensures quantifying and defining the structure of stereotypes set in the public awareness, such as golf – sport for the rich, player’s skills – the result of the massive scale, which is stipulated by the number of golf courses, golf – summer sport etc.

Materials and methods. The first problem was settled using the method of factor analysis with Kaiser standardization and Varimax rotation [6]. The statistical interactive application Stadia 6.0 was used for calculation. 10 variables from the Handbook of Vital Statistics Methods [10, 11, 12] were considered for 15 countries, 13 - 92% of the best golf players in the top 250 (250 in the ranking – the acceptability constant for participating in Olympic golf tournament in 2016). The analyzed data is adduced in Table.

Table. Statistics for the factors analysis of golf players ranking.

№	Country	Golfers in the top-250	Golfers/ country population, %	Golf courses /area, 1/100/km2	Golf courses /area, 1/100	Life span, years	Geographic latitude	Average annual temperature	GDP per capita	Years of work of the first golf club	Olympic champions 100/ population	Total of golf courses
1	USA	132	8,25	0,187	5,746	78,4	37,72	20	47,02	124	0,138	18000
2	S.Korea	93	8,00	0,172	0,352	79,1	36,18	19	26,34	44	0,053	1720
3	Japan	61	7,87	0,661	1,977	82,3	36,07	18	34,50	113	0,017	2500
4	United Kingdom	53	5,97	1,067	4,147	80,1	55,12	11	36,57	268	0,309	2600
5	Australia	26	4,35	0,019	6,891	81,8	-25,43	21	37,47	142	0,142	1500
6	South Africa	22	1,02	0,033	0,816	49,3	-30,75	14	10,18	130	0,012	400
7	Sweden	21	6,32	0,111	5,501	81,1	62	7,2	37,52	110	1,562	500
8	Spain	11	0,76	0,050	0,543	81,2	40,3	20	30,75	121	0,059	254
9	France	16	0,64	0,091	0,796	81,2	46	10,9	34,26	124	0,170	500
10	Denmark	5	2,68	0,281	2,189	78,6	56,13	8,4	38,20	95	0,181	121
11	Germany	5	0,86	0,190	0,834	80,1	51	9	35,55	119	0,182	680
12	Thailand	8	0,30	0,049	0,374	73,6	15,65	28	8,38	92	0,005	250
13	Italy	8	0,17	0,086	0,423	81,8	42	15,8	30,70	123	0,125	258
14	China	4	0,22	0,004	0,026	72,95	35,57	7	5,943	28	0,006	350
15	Russia	0	0,002	0,00016	0,019	66,3	61,37	1,3	16,16	25	0,164	27

The second problem was solved by means of the mean-square approximation of the correspondence of golf players in the top-250 to all golf players for the countries stipulated in the table. The function of the type y = 15,65 ln x – 173,52 was proved the most suitable for the approximation of this dependence (with the highest coefficient of determination 0,74).

Results and discussion. According to the multivariate analysis of the data adduced in Table 1, 7 linearly independent factors were determined that when changed influence significantly the number of players in the world ranking.

The influence of the first two first factors is approximately the same, each of them to determine about 17% of the quantity variance of players in the world ranking. The first factor is determined by two variables: average life span and GDP per capita. By the definition of the World Health Organization this factor can be called a health factor – the state of complete physical, personal and social well-being. Factor loadings of the second component are estimated by the time of foundation of the first golf club and density of golf courses in the country, namely golf traditions and spatial accessibility of golf courses. This factor can be referred to golf only and describes temporal (historical) and area prevalence of golf within the country.

The third factor (14% of the total variance of players in the top-250) is fully correlated with the total number of golf courses in the country. This is a factor of playing experience (variative motor skill) that can be gained only when playing on different courses in different game conditions.

The number of players in the top 250 world ranking of all registered players.

The fourth factor, equal to the third one in respect to its effect, combines two parameters: the number of Olympic champions and the number of golf courses to the total population of the country. This factor can be considered as a factor of national physicality and availability of golf courses. It determines sophistication of the training system of elite athletes in other sports, which is probably used while training professional golf players, and potential attendance of golf courses (supply, variety of choice).

The fifth factor (12% of the variety of golf players in the top-250) is the factor of the massive scale, which is equal to the ratio of registered golf players to the population of the country. This result is confirmed by the Bauer’ data: “sport results grow with the number of athletes involved in elite sport and the quality of sport qualification and professional training, but not by the total of golf players” [2].

The Figure above illustrates the action of the fifth massive scale factor. You can see that the number of players in the top-250 is growing rapidly up to a certain level of the massive scale, followed by the decrease of the variance of ranking players, making the massive scale not a strong factor regarding its influence on the number of elite players. The coordinates in this point are 550000 and 22, so if the total number of golf players is over 0.5 million people, the dependence of the massive scale and the number of elite athletes will be nonlinear.

And finally the sixth and the seventh factors (equal to the fifth by the effect) are the factors of geographical latitude and average annual temperature, whose influence is rather specific. In golf latitude generally determines mostly daylight hours in summer in the northern latitude, and therefore the duration of trainings, while temperature - stability and duration of snow cover. For example, in Sweden these values are the latitude 62° North and 7,2°C, so in summer time the Sun is hardly setting and the snow cover stays for not long. These natural factors are good for golf.

Conclusions. The number of golfers in the world ranking is defined by seven factors that can be divided into three groups by the equality of effect values (approximately by 30%):

1. The group of factors associated with people's social well-being (mean life span and the value of gross domestic product per capita) and temporal (historical) and regional distribution of golf in the country.

2. The group of factors determined by the range of golf courses, their clients and qualified athletes' training system availability in other sports.

3. The group of factors defined by the massive scale of the game, geographic and climatic conditions.

The correlation of golfers' representation in the top-250 world ranking is logarithmic. The gradient of ranking players decreases with the massive scale over 0.5 million of people. Approximately 1 player in the top-250 out of 25 000 is a golfer.

When extrapolating the findings to the Russian reality, it is possible to get necessary parameters to represent Russian players in future Olympic golf tournaments: 145 golf courses on the territory of the Russian Federation and approximately 150 000 players training in golf sections of specialized children's sports schools of Olympic reserve.

References

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10. Official World Golf Ranking / http://www.officialworldgolfranking.com / available 30.10.2012
11. Official Rolex Website: Rolex Rankings / http://www.rolexrankings.com/

UNCTAD HANDBOOK OF STATISTICS 2010 TD/STAT. 35

UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION – PUBLICATION DES NATIONS UNIES Sales number / Numéro de vente : B.10.II.D.1 ISBN 978-92-1-012075-3 ISSN 0251-9461

Author’s contacts: korolkov07@list.ru