PhD, Associate Professor S.A. Vorobev¹
PhD, Associate Professor M.Y. Shchennikova³
PhD, Associate Professor N.A. Breider^{1, 2}
A.N. Shchennikov^{1, 3
1}Saint-Petersburg Scientific-Research institute for Physical Culture, Saint-Petersburg
²Russian State Hydrometeorological University, St. Petersburg
³Lesgaft National State University of Physical Education, Sport and Health, St. Petersburg

Objective of the study was to analyze the national physical education and sports (PES) sector progress in the context of the federal and regional PES human resource (HR) supply and demand statistics to offer the PES human resource flow monitoring and forecast model.
Methods and structure of the study. We used for the purposes of the study the tradional theoretical research methods, comparative analysis of the governmental statistical reports 1-FC for 2012-2019, linear regression based forecasts, and a trend analysis with extrapolations. When developing our PES HR flow monitoring and forecast model, we gave a special priority to systematic comprehensive analyses of the current progress trends, PES progress strategy implementation benchmarks and analysis of the PES HR supply and demand situation in the context of the sector progress goals.
Results and conclusion. Our analysis of the key PES sector progress trends with the HR supply and demand statistics for 2012-2019 found the following:
• The trainees-per-trainer ratio in the PES sector needs to be stabilized to meet the valid federal PES service standards in terms of group numbers and training schedules and the federal regulations on additional paraprofessional PES specialist training curricula;
• The PES specialist supply lags far behind the demand (as demonstrated by the fast growth of the habitually sporting population in every region and PES domain, including the corporate PES, clientele of the public sports facilities and other sports organizations.
Regional PES staff growth forecasts from the relevant governmental agencies – based on the general labor resource accounting and balancing data ignoring the PES clientele growth forecast that gives 70% growth by 2030 – fail to fairly rate and predict the HR demand in the PES sector.

Keywords: physical education and sports human resource supply, specialist demand, statistical reports, analytical system, monitoring, forecast.

References

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