Progress forecasting mathematical model for elite sports: winter sports case study

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PhD A.V. Ermakov1, 2
P.E. Myakinchenko1
1Federal Scientific Center of Physical Culture and Sports VNIIFK, Moscow
2Russian State University of Physical Education, Sports, Youth and Tourism (SCOLIPE), Moscow

Objective of the study was to forecast an individual relative competitive progress by mathematical modeling method, with winter sports (WS) taken for the case study.
Methods and structure of the study. We sampled for the competitive progress modeling study the following elite winter sports competitors of different ages and both genders: men freestylers (ski acrobats) (n=31); women speed skaters (n=22) and men cross-country skiers (n=31). The individual relative competitive progress forecasts were made using the moving average functions to find the key relative competitive progress trends with smoothed short-term fluctuations.
Results and conclusions. We qualified a part of the sample by prior checks for the relative competitive progress forecasting method with a high degree of approximation using model 1 with the second-degree polynomial and model 2 with the third-degree polynomial, and selected model 1 as the key one for the case study, albeit model 3 with the third-degree polynomial is also applicable in certain cases. We found the moving-average-based relative competitive progress forecast model fairly accurate at this juncture albeit still having certain limitations for
application. More sophisticated and inclusive competitive progress forecast models need to be developed to cover a wider variety of the factors of influence on the competitive progress in elite winter sports.

Keywords: mathematical modeling, moving average, winter sports, physical education and sports, competitive progress, competitive progress forecast model, ranking.

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